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CVI · Commodity Volatility Intelligence
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CVI — Commodity Volatility Intelligence · Week 24, 2026

Commodity Volatility Intelligence

Real-time price stability monitoring across Jamaica's 12 tracked commodity categories. The CVI measures week-on-week price instability, supply concentration risk, and the probability of sustained price disruption. Updated every Friday from AMIB market data.

31 ELEVATED Stable Elevated Critical
National CVI · Week 24
31
Elevated · Above normal threshold of 25
Two commodities — Thyme and Scotch Bonnet — are driving 62% of total price instability. Carrot and Sweet Potato are providing stability anchors. The tourism supply corridor (St. James–Trelawny) is the primary geographic concentration of volatility risk.
CVI Thresholds
0–25 · Stable
26–49 · Elevated
50–74 · High
75–100 · Critical
Volatility by Commodity · Ranked High → Low
Thyme
78
Critical volatility · Supply shortage w3
J$345/kg
↑ +18% WoW
Scotch Bonnet
65
High volatility · Tourism sourcing risk
J$412/kg
↑ +12% WoW
Tomato
52
Elevated · Seasonal pressure
J$158/kg
↑ +8% WoW
Cho Cho
38
Watch · Declining supply
J$95/kg
↑ +6% WoW
Escallion
28
Slightly elevated
J$88/kg
↑ +3% WoW
Callaloo
18
Stable
J$72/kg
→ 0% WoW
Carrot
12
Stable · Abundant supply
J$94/kg
↓ −4% WoW
Sweet Potato
8
Very stable · Anchor commodity
J$82/kg
↓ −2% WoW
CVI Historical Trend · 12 Weeks Threshold: 25 · Current: 31
25 threshold W13 W16 W20 Now 31 50 35 20
Trend Analysis
CVI has been above the 25 threshold for 4 consecutive weeks — the longest sustained elevated period since November 2024. Primary driver: herb commodity supply disruption. If Thyme supply restores within 2 weeks, CVI projects to return below 25.
Volatility Concentration Risk 2 commodities driving 62% of CVI
CommodityCVI ContributionParish ConcentrationTourism Exposure
Thyme34%Trelawny (primary)Critical
Scotch Bonnet28%St. Thomas, St. ElizabethCritical
Tomato16%Clarendon, St. Cath.High
Cho Cho12%WestmorelandModerate
Escallion6%St. ElizabethLow
Carrot, Callaloo, SW Potato4%Multi-parishStable
Hotel Food Cost Impact
+8.4%
Estimated food cost increase for North Coast hospitality from current herb price surge
CPI Contribution
+0.6 pts
Estimated CPI contribution from current commodity volatility cluster
Import Substitution Window
J$820M
Annualised value of carrot, sweet potato, and callaloo surplus available for market linkage right now